Quarterbacks and the draft
September 14th, 2010, 6:52pm by JakeApropos of a discussion Kelvin & I had this morning about the sorry state of Alex Smith (sorry Niners fan), we started talking about drafting quarterbacks and wondering if NFL teams were any good identifying the top QBs in the draft. After manually flipping through a few Wikipedia pages, I decided to shortcut the process with the always excellent Pro Football Reference. Here’s a look at all the signal callers that have been drafted in the first 3 rounds since 1980. At some point I’ll test Kelvin’s theory that the 3rd QB drafted is usually the best. For now, here’s a look at all the #1 picks:
| Year ▴ | Rnd | Pick | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1983 | 1 | 1 | John Elway HOF |
| 1987 | 1 | 1 | Vinny Testaverde |
| 1989 | 1 | 1 | Troy Aikman HOF |
| 1990 | 1 | 1 | Jeff George |
| 1993 | 1 | 1 | Drew Bledsoe |
| 1998 | 1 | 1 | Peyton Manning |
| 1999 | 1 | 1 | Tim Couch |
| 2001 | 1 | 1 | Michael Vick |
| 2002 | 1 | 1 | David Carr |
| 2003 | 1 | 1 | Carson Palmer |
| 2004 | 1 | 1 | Eli Manning |
| 2005 | 1 | 1 | Alex Smith |
| 2007 | 1 | 1 | JaMarcus Russell |
| 2009 | 1 | 1 | Matthew Stafford
|
Among those 14, there are 3 Hall of Famers (Elway, Aikman & P. Manning), 5 more gamers (Testaverde, Bledsoe, George, E. Manning & Palmer), 5 guys that are likely or certain busts and Michael Vick. In fact, drafting a QB #1 seemed sure fire until 1999, when teams started taking QBs that high every year!
Looking down to the top 32 players by approximate value among passers in all rounds, here’s the breakdown by round drafte with some representative stars:
- Overall #1: 7 players (John Elway, Jeff George, Carson Palmer)
- Remainder of round 1: 8 (Dan Marino, Jim Harbugh, Chad Pennington)
- Round 2: 4 (Brett Favre, Drew Bree, Jake Plummer, Kordell Stewart)
- Rounds 3-7: 13 (Tom Brady, Jake Plummer, Neil O’Donnell)
Looks like you’re as likely to get a star QB after the first round as in it, and picking a QB with a high pick is no guarantee of success.
September 15th, 2010 at 7:00 am
What is it with Kelvin and the number 3? He’s also proposed that track 3 is often the best song on an album. It’s a tough hypothesis to prove, but there are plenty of examples where he’s right on that one.