iPhone 4
June 7th, 2010, 2:59pm by JakeJust got caught up on the SteveNote. iPhone 4 looks good, ditto the iOS. But man, the contrast of networks between the Evo and iPhone is stunning… video chat over WiFi only kinda misses the point, needs to ask attendees to shut off WiFi for some demos since the AT&T network is too slow in SF. Also, kinda funny how the 3GS display is now portrayed as crappy & he’s made up some malarkey called RD to demonstrate it. I mean, if you have to magnify your image size by 1000% to show the problems with limited resolution, well, that doesn’t seem like such a problem! Undoubtedly the new display is nicer, but will be interesting to see if the tech media disseminates Steve’s marketing pitch as effectively as he did.
Exactly what we expected for the iPhone 4. Worth picking up to replace a 3G? Probably. Doesn’t really seem to be a game changer vs. the 3GS until they go 4G.
From the liveblogs.
June 7th, 2010 at 3:20 pm
Yeah, I like the new industrial design, but the surprise on that was completely spoiled. Ditto on videochatting. Once we knew there was a front facing camera, the only questions were would the video chat work over 3G cellular and whether it would be interoperative with anything. i expected that Skype and Qik support would be slow to come, but not supporting iChat video chat out of the box is a very odd choice.
Anyway, no real surprises, but a very good upgrade nonetheless, if not only for the display. And with a CDMA version to come, no doubt, would you rather have an EVO or a Sprint iPhone 4 at this point? Or stick with a Pre?
June 7th, 2010 at 4:04 pm
An iPhone 4G would be a very strong contender, and is no doubt due by June 2011 via hook or crook. If the original Pre is the best webOS device that Sprint sells at that point, I’d surely abandoned it. I’m curious to see how Sprint rolls out other 4G phones– a steady stream or just a couple big launched. 300,000 sold on day 1 is very nice launch for the Evo, and the Pre would have been hard pressed to match that on launch day even without any supply issues.
I’ll give it about 3 months, and then start seriously considering the new phones out there. By then, I think we should expect the Pre Two or a new webOS form factor.
June 7th, 2010 at 4:10 pm
Yeah, completely anticlimactic since the phone was leaked early. And kinda interesting that for the first time, there was no mention of the Mac at WWDC (they had already announced that they did away with Apple Developer Awards for Mac programs this year, so everyone knew it would be iDevice focused — but seriously, a little love for the Mac would be nice!).
And I read through the engadget live blog, and didn’t understand the “turn off your wifi” comments. I thought that it was because the demo was using wifi (as is visible from the phone display on the screen), and so were the people in the hall — having nothing to do with AT&T.
And I agree, the video chat thing is pretty weak — only iPhone-to-iPhone over wifi, no iChat or Skype. Still, I’m guessing that Joanie will upgrade from her 3G, but I’m not convinced that it’s worth upgrading from my 3GS.
Put down today as the day I started wondering about my future with the iPhone. It’s still the best phone out there for me right now, but if they’re only going to roll out one hardware rev a year, they’re going to be so far behind Android it’s not even funny, with the number of phones released each year only increasing. This is the first time I felt like Apple didn’t even catch up, much less move the bar, compared with the competition.
June 7th, 2010 at 4:14 pm
What happened is that hundreds of people brought MiFis and Sprint Overdrives that created WiFi Hotspots for their laptops & friends. So with 100 other hotspots running, Apple’s private WiFi network couldn’t work effectively due to interference from adjacent networks. Now, if this were Sprint, they could’ve run those demos just as well over the 4G. But on 3G– especially AT&T’s 3G, in San Francisco, at WWDC– not even a remote chance. If I were a muckraking journalist *cough* Gizmodo *cough* I know that would be the lead of my story.
June 7th, 2010 at 4:20 pm
I think a WIMAX iPhone is out of the question– there’s never going to be enough volume for Apple to bother. An iPhone with a new radio is going to be CDMA only or maybe LTE (which will do Sprint no good). I’d predict Sprint’s 4G rollout to be slow, with few manufacturers being willing to custom their best designs for Sprint.
I think I’d still rather have an Android phone than an iPhone, but Apple has really closed the gap. The new hardware is pretty drool-worthy, if I weren’t still stubbornly in the hardware keyboard camp. Not like Android really has any nice options with keyboards, though.
June 9th, 2010 at 2:34 am
Sprint issued a clarification that pegs EVO launch day sales closer to 100K than 300K. That’s certainly less humiliating for Palm and puts some wind back into Apples’ sales.
“We originally reported that the total number of HTC EVO 4G devices sold on launch day was three times the number of Samsung Instinct and Palm Pre devices sold over their first three days on the market combined. We inadvertently erred in the comparison. The total number of HTC EVO 4G devices sold on launch day was in line with the number of Samsung Instinct and Palm Pre devices sold over their first three days on the market combined.”
June 9th, 2010 at 11:09 am
Oh, that’s not really so impressive then. Pretty sure the Pre would’ve doubled its sales totals if there were enough phones available day 1. And there were no effectively no Pre sales day 2 or 3.
June 9th, 2010 at 2:41 pm
Well, we’ll never know how many sales they left on the table. Pretty humorous that the Instinct, which was Sprint’s PREvious record holder, is now known to only have sold 16K at launch. I predict that EVO will end up doing better than Pre did, if only because it’s selling better into the technorati, which is going to keep it in the limelight for longer.
As for Pre, it seems that there’s a flood of used phones available on eBay now, following the EVO launch. We could pick up a spare for less than $100, or I could presumably get one to upgrade Serena contract free. Pixi’s are actually more expensive.
June 10th, 2010 at 2:39 pm
Battery seems to be EVO’s Achilles’ heel. Almost Pre-like, it seems. Meanwhile, the iPhone 4 has managed to improve battery life across the board, a spec that’s received little attention. If the new iPhone has improved reception with this crazy antennae array and better battery life, it’ll be a pretty significant revision.
June 11th, 2010 at 4:34 pm
I think you’re right — all the attention is on chip speeds and display size, when it’s battery life that is one of the highest-impact specs that’s often overlooked (along with call quality, which the iPhone suffers at). Agreed, it sounds like Apple put their priorities in the right place — if battery life and call quality are improved, it’s a winning hardware rev for most people.
June 11th, 2010 at 9:39 pm
Are you eligible for an upgrade Mike? Josh Topolsky says everyone he knows who has an iPhone has said they will get an iPhone4. Despite our misgivings, Apple looks to have another hit on their hands.
June 12th, 2010 at 6:53 am
Yeah, I’m eligible, but I feel like my phone is fine. I may feel differently once I see it, though, and maybe it would be good for J and me to be on the same upgrade cycle.
June 12th, 2010 at 11:26 am
it’s insane that AT&T is offering a full $400 subsidy after only a year. Probably the clearest announcement yet that an iPhone’s coming on other carriers (other than comments to that effect from an Apple engineer). Bet the early upgrade is a one time deal (ie, not offered next year). So will you fall for their ruse? Or would you rather keep the door open to an iPhone on another network? Aulsumming you are satisfied with AT&T, do you think iPhone 5 will be a bigger change? (What else could they add? Is there ANYTHING they are currently missing? LTE?).
June 12th, 2010 at 11:45 am
The iPhone 4 is a pretty sweet device, and will no doubt quickly surpass the Evo, Droid Incredible, Storm and every other touchscreen-only device in sales. And the truth is, even with all the developer roadblocks that Apple is erecting, the iPhone still has far & away the most vibrant developer community and the most cutting edge apps. In a year, that could change, but for now the iPhone is still the leading smartphone platform.
June 12th, 2010 at 12:54 pm
Oh no doubt, I believe the 3GS is currently the best selling phone in the US. iPhone 4 will definitely capture those sales plus stimulate a disproportionate number of upgrades from the 25 million current US iPhone users. It would not surprise me to see Apple double 3GS sales out of the gate and even eclipse RIMM in sales for good. I mean, geez, even Mike Arrington, who publically quit his iPhone due to the Google Voice mess, has said he would go back for the iPhone 4.
June 12th, 2010 at 1:15 pm
I’m not saying “no,” but for someone with a 3GS, it’s not clear to me yet that the iPhone 4 gets me value worth $200. I’m not so down on re-upping with AT&T — they don’t seem any worse than anybody else, I don’t have an unacceptable number of dropped calls, and their pricing isn’t too far out of line.
For someone without an iPhone, or without a 3GS, the 4 will be pretty compelling, I think, as long as you don’t have a philosophical stand against Apple — and as Kelvin noted, apparently even that can be overcome (but personally, I don’t see how the 4 offers quite *that* much).
What would be great is if the iPhone 5 had a faster data connection and an even better battery — the 4 has a the front-facing camera, a great screen (or so they say), what must be the minimal size for a device with its screen size, and if the reception is improved by the external antenna bezel, I can’t think of other hardware that would be necessary — and the rest is software. I still think there could be lots of OS improvements, however…
Jake, I noted that you limited your praise to “touchscreen-only” devices. What keyboard-containing device do you think will outsell the iPhone? Are you thinking all RIM phones together?
June 12th, 2010 at 3:28 pm
if you add up all the slight variants of the basic Blackberry form, I think they likely outsell the iPhone in the US. Actually, it’s more like I’m not sure. I’m sure the iPhone will quickly outsell all others.
besides that, for all the freedom webOS and Android provide, I don’t think anyone apart from Google has developed apps on any platform that are groundbreaking and lack an iPhone analog. Some of the Twitter clients are better, mostly because of multitasking & notifications, but no one’s buying a phone just for Twitter.
Apart from Google, who’s making the killer apps?
June 13th, 2010 at 12:15 pm
From a user’s perspective, iPhone’s push notification system is actually better for something like twitter (better battery handling, real time vs. polling). iOS4’s pseudo-multitasking will make it even harder to come up with real scenarios where multitasking has any practical advantages.
Anyway, the Curve versions and the 3GS had been trading places at the top of the US sales chart, but I don’t get why IDC separately breaks out 3G vs. 3GS but gloms Curves together.
June 13th, 2010 at 1:56 pm
To me, it’s more about the unobtrusiveness of ignored notifications on webOS. I can take a peek at the notice, then respond, ignore or dismiss. You can’t ignore a notification on the iPhone if you’re using it.
June 13th, 2010 at 3:14 pm
Yes, total agreement. Notifications are much better on Android and WebOS than on iPhone.
June 13th, 2010 at 9:00 pm
Speaking of notifications on the iPhone, i don’t know how Mike feels about them, but apparently, help is on the way, in the form of a webOS UI guy moving to Apple.
June 14th, 2010 at 5:51 am
Notifications in the form of popups suck, no question. Maybe that’s part of the reason I don’t use them for really anything — I don’t get a popup for texts or mails, and I don’t really use any push notifications unless I’m traveling, when I turn them on for flight updates. I actually can’t think of any other push notifications that I wish I had (don’t want Twitter), but if I used them, I’d definitely rather have webOS or Android’s system.
And I don’t know how much that guy will add to Apple — I’m sure Palm has some patents on their notification system, not that that seems to matter in this field…
June 14th, 2010 at 9:12 am
If you disable the popup for those things, do you have any indication that an emails/texts has come other than the numerical badge on the launcher icon? That’s not much different than what I do in practice, where I don’t like to be bothered by my phone when I’m doing something IRL or AFK (away from keyboard). I disable all my Pre’s notification sounds, obligating me to visually check my phone every once in a while for any new notifcations. I guess the difference is if I’m actually doing something on the phone, I will be alerted in real time of new notification events.
June 14th, 2010 at 10:27 am
On the jailbroken phone, I get a notification in the menu bar of unread mails, missed calls, and new text messages, visible on the lock screen. Since I use Intelliscreen (jailbreak app), I have new emails and text messages display on the lock screen. Auto Silent automatically silences the alert sounds according to my calendar, so my phone doesn’t make any sounds during meetings.
So, if I’m not in a meeting, I hear the sound, hit any phone button (to bring me to the lock screen) and see the sender and first line of the message. Otherwise, I have a notification in the menu bar, as well as the sender and first line displayed on the lock screen, but I have to check myself, which is how I want it. Works for me, not sure I need any more than that.
June 14th, 2010 at 4:16 pm
OK, that sounds like exactly how I use my Pre and my Q before that (except that my notifications are always silent). Is jailbreaking required to get notification icons in the menu bar? That seems like a huge improvement over the current iPhone pop up.
June 16th, 2010 at 11:42 am
Were we talking about the Google/ Apple ad thing here or elsewhere? Regardless, Gruber makes a a point I’ve been trying to make for months, http://daringfireball.net/2010/06/whats_fair#fn1-2010-06-16 . I’ll just plagiarize it in full:
June 16th, 2010 at 1:05 pm
Is that your prediction as well? I have problems with both of Gruber’s stipulations. It’s because of Android and Google’s heroic efforts that Apple might not become the dominant ad platform in mobile. And who’s to say that Apple would not have rolled out iAds at any point? Last thing Google wants is to become dependent on the kindness of strangers. They’ve gone out of their way to subvert Microsoft on the desktop and are doing it now with Apple on the smartphone. It also seems to me that iAds vs. Admob isn’t the real battle that Google wants to fight– buying Admob from under Apple’s nose was merely for defensive purposes. Google makes their $$ on web ads, and needs to keep the browser from being marginalized.
June 16th, 2010 at 1:43 pm
Well, I’ve always been skeptical of the Google business model for profiting from Android… the whole idea was to create a great mobile OS, give it away and drive mobile ad traffic. Given that Google has poured billions into Android (I would guess that their investment has dwarfed Palm’s by a factor of 5 or more), I just don’t see that as the case. Has Android sped smartphone adoption? Sure, but given what Palm, Apple & possibly Microsoft have been doing, it’s clear that adoption was going to grow fast regardless. And yes, absolutely, Apple could have still pulled the same trick & banned Google ads from apps.
I have no idea what kind of mobile ads are effective– sounds like adds for mobile apps work well, but what else? The money Google has sunk into Android has pushed things along faster in the mobile space. But I still don’t see Google profiting from that investment. Maybe they are… anyone know what the total size of the mobile ad market is today, and how much of that Google has?
June 16th, 2010 at 2:55 pm
I don’t know how Google monetizes Android, or maps or mail, or anything other than desktop Adsense for that matter. Discounting Admob, I’m not sure Google currently has any mobile ads– they only recently rolled out Mobile Adsense, I think.
From the standpoint of defending their Search franchise, Google must think that Apple having a stranglehold on mobile internet is bad for Google, especially since Apple seems intent on promoting apps over the open internet (see their latest Apple Store app). So in that light, Google is far better off having rolled out Android than without, IMO. I mean, you’ve been predicting that Apple’s dirty behavour would soon doom the iPhone– would you have been so confident without the viable alternative that Android represents?
June 16th, 2010 at 3:57 pm
I have no data to back this up, but do you think Google has really invested billions in Android development? Sounds pretty high to me.
If you want to read something funny, check out engadget reporting on Google’s acquisition of Android, back in 2005. Seems that all these years later, it’s still not clear what they’re doing.
As for advertising in general, I really can’t understand why there’s any substantial money to be made in internet advertising, personally. The promise has always been in targeting ads to specific demographics, but how much are you swayed by banner ads, or sidebar ads? When was the last time you clicked on one? I would say that TV ads are a much better use of ad dollars, since at least they’re clever and you might talk about an ad to your friends or coworkers. When was the last time you talked about a great internet ad? IMHO, the best way to advertise on the internet is to get bloggers to write good reviews of your products.
June 16th, 2010 at 4:59 pm
Pay-per-click advertising does pretty well for Google, and prices have been going up. It used to be a great bargain, now it’s price more in-line. Problem is, no one really clicks on ads outside of search pages– I’ve never clicked on a GMail or Facebook ad, let alone something from NY Times or ESPN.
Regardless, how ’bout a quick look at the relevant markets?
Mobile vs. Desktop search:
http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-total-searches-on-smartphones-and-pcs-2010-6
And internet advertising, c. 2008, was about 8% of the market– compared to a 38% share of time spent (vs. other media).
http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-time-spent-vs-ad-spend-2010-1
Overall online advertising is a $25 billion/ year business:
http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-online-advertising-is-back-2010-4
Does Google make money on maps & mail? Don’t know, but I’m betting they do. And considering that Palm spent several hundred million developing webOS, I think billions is a fair estimate for Google– but that’s basically a gut feel. Their expenses are probably ~$15 billion/year, and my feeling is that Android is getting a good chunk of that.
We probably need a new topic for this, but if Google’s plan is to make sure the open web wins over iOS, they need to up their game. I was going to start a post (will soon enough) called, “where are the killer apps?” Android (and webOS) with their open environments should have better apps than the iPhone. Yet apart from Google, no one is making those killer apps. And Google isn’t really trying to make killer apps that run on the mobile web– if they’re out their, I haven’t seen them. Further, Google has a disincentive; by many accounts, the reason many technorati get Android is for better GMail handling. But if Google takes that out of the app & puts it on the web, they’ve given iPhone users one less reason to switch. It’s a pickle for Google if they’re plan is to make the mobile web as good as mobile apps. Funny how it’s come full-circle where the knock on iPhone 1.0 was the inability to run apps & apple pushed web apps.
June 16th, 2010 at 5:41 pm
“And Google isn’t really trying to make killer apps that run on the mobile web– if they’re out their, I haven’t seen them.”
How about Google Voice, Google Latitude, Google Mail (the rejected Apple apps, basically)? And WebOS’s version of Google Maps? Those are web apps that run in a browser. Yes, they all probably run better natively (on Android), but that’s a technology limitation for now. And maybe native apps will always be better than HTML5-based apps, but the upshot is there’s no gatekeeper. As far as Google’s disincentive to make GMail et al. work well in a mobile browser, I think I know what Google would prefer– they’ve made a pretty big bet on a browser-based future (Chrome OS), and like you say, they don’t make any money on Android sales. My theory is that Google doesn’t want to destroy the iPhone in favor of Android, it’s that they want all users (iPhone and others) to use the web instead of Apps, especially those on a proprietary platform bent on controlling user behavior. Just speculating of course. But like you, I don’t think simply growing the mobile web was sufficient motivation for investing in Android– that was inevitable.
I see no reason to think that Google has outspent Palm by 5X. Maybe by 2X, just because they can. Palm has to develop both the hardware AND the software, remember.
Anyway, it looks like it *was* a mistake. Despite Google’s efforts, Apple does seem on the way to world domination, with that ridiculous number of preorders for the iPhone 4. Gruber was spot on in saying Google should not have picked a fight they weren’t going to win. Better to live on their knees than die on their feet.
June 16th, 2010 at 8:12 pm
I think you guys are a little pessimistic here — it’s early days, and we all remember how promising Mac was in the early days, and how now they’re sitting at single-digit market share. I think Android will definitely take over from Apple as far as market share, but like you, I don’t know how that really helps Google. And aren’t you guys usually talking about how you think HP/Palm is on their way to world domination?!?
As for web apps from Google — their GMail implementation for iPhone (a web app) is supposed to be great if you’re a power GMail user (which I’m really not), and of course, they have gotten around Apple’s restrictions on Latitude and Voice with webapps that are at least serviceable (though the jailbreak apps are much better).
It’s interesting — people have had all sorts of theories on why Google does what it does. When Chrome (the browser) first came out, people were discussing the single url/search bar, and the fact that since it did both, everything you type into that bar has to be processed as to whether it’s a search term or a URL, and it gets sent to Google for that. So Google gets your entire web history. Another thought was that Google gets your misspellings, and can use that to make the world’s best spell checker, when you click on one of those, “Did you mean…” links. They have all this geocoded information from local searches. And so on, and so on.
In some ways, I feel like it’s like Twitter — they have this giant store of information, and someday, maybe they’ll figure out how to monetize it. I just can’t imagine that ads, or phones, is the end of the line. I’m sure there will be more, but maybe even they don’t know where they’re going.
June 18th, 2010 at 1:58 am
“And aren’t you guys usually talking about how you think HP/Palm is on their way to world domination?!?”
I never thought Palm was ever going to be more than a small player in a growing market. Certainly, they never had a chance at being bigger than Android collectively. But it would have justified their strategy if they ended up bigger than most of the individual Android manufacturers. Obviously, that didn’t turn out to be the case. But at least they built value by not going with Android. No one would have paid $1.5 billion for a struggling Android manufacturer.
Back on topic, some WSJ poll is showing that 62% of US iPhone users plan to upgrade to the 4. That would be around 15 million extra sales. Insane. Did you get Joanie’s pre-order in? You should get one too and also keep your 3GS on a separate account so you can wifi tether with the 4 and get facetime with J and A from anywhere :).
June 18th, 2010 at 9:50 am
The HP/Palm comment was a little tongue-in-cheek — I don’t think anybody expected them to dominate much of anything. Except Jake, maybe 😉
We didn’t preorder a new iPhone, but Joanie will be getting a new one. I’ve been leaning against upgrading my phone at this point, but if the iPhone 4 jailbreakable (the OS is, but nobody’s played with the hardware yet), and Joanie’s going to start a new 2-year contract anyway, it may be worth considering.
As for the 3GS — we’ve got a family plan with a weird IBM discount (on Joanie’s line), so I think it would be something like $10 for the 3GS line, and $20-30 for the data plan, which makes it prohibitively expensive to keep around just for tethering. If the iPhone 4 can be jailbroken, I could run my3G to spoof the wifi connection and use video that way.
June 18th, 2010 at 4:04 pm
Hmm, maybe I’ll get a free iPhone 4 with a 3GS trade-in at Radio Shack?
June 18th, 2010 at 5:12 pm
I assume your b0rked link refers to an article similar to this one >> http://reviews.cnet.com/8301-19512_7-20008186-233.html
June 18th, 2010 at 5:32 pm
Seems to me that the average iPhone 3GS is selling for more than that on eBay, maybe $250-300 or so (more if jailbroken, I’m sure). Regardless of how, it seems like you could upgrade with only a contract extension.
Are you eligible for an upgrade Lance? If so, will you get a 4?
June 18th, 2010 at 6:33 pm
I am eligible for an upgrade with an $18 fee. I’m going to wait until Nathan’s nanny, Sam, gets hers to see if it is worth the upgrade. I’m leaning towards a “no” right now, which means, most likely, I’ll get the iPhone 5 in June 2011. 🙂 Kayleigh has been wanting an iPad, so I’m thinking that will be my next (second, ever) Apple product purchase. Hopefully the iPads will get a hardware upgrade in Oct/Nov before the holidays.
June 18th, 2010 at 7:04 pm
As I may have posted elsewhere, something reliable tells me we can count on a high-resolution iPad coming, but if you aren’t swayed by the retinal-ness of the iPhone 4, you might not want to wait, as I have no idea as to the timeframe.
June 18th, 2010 at 8:53 pm
The higher-res display would be nice, but I’m really interested to see if they will bump the RAM (to match iPhone 4), an 802.11n radio, and add a front-facing camera to support FaceTime.
June 18th, 2010 at 8:54 pm
Oh…wait…I see they already have 802.11n. So…just the other two. 🙂
June 19th, 2010 at 1:19 am
I’m waiting for the PrePad, which will be clearly better than the iPad, until 2 days later when Apple releases the iPad Mark II.
June 20th, 2010 at 1:30 am
A breakdown of the mobile ad marketshare as of Nov 09, by IDC:
http://www.millennialmedia.com/2010/05/4117/
August 27th, 2010 at 12:55 pm
OK, wasn’t sure if I should add this observation to this thread or to the “web is dead” thread, because we touched on the same theme, but this morning, I read about some ridiculous mortgage rates while on the train and wanted a quick mortgage calculator to see how much money we’d save. Did a quick Google search from my phone, but got frustated when the top 3 hits gave me flash-based sites. So I fired up the app catalog and found a free app, problem solved. On mobile, the web is becoming second choice. It probably will be for me next time.
October 5th, 2010 at 7:10 pm
FWIW, Google claims that Android is already profitable, in that Android phones generate enough ad revenue to cover the cost of software development. Certainly, it doesn’t mean that they’ve recouped their sunk R&D costs, although Android is described as being written by a “small group of engineers.” What it probably means is that Admob is making more money that Android team burns. But maybe Gruber backed the wrong horse when he disparaged Google’s Android strategy.
October 5th, 2010 at 8:11 pm
Saw that too. I’m certain it relies on the faulty assumption that if Android didn’t exist, the millions in Andrdoid ad revenue would drop to zero. That would overstate the impact by at least a factor of 2, and maybe by a factor of 10 in the longer run.
October 6th, 2010 at 12:41 pm
It’s not such a stretch to say that if an Android handset doesn’t exist, it’s revenue generating potential is 0. Sure, maybe the same ad dollars would have flowed to Google through a Palm Pre instead, but let’s look at the converse argument– Google would have just found a different way to waste that Android development budget.