Bold forecast for the Palm Keynote tomorrow
January 6th, 2010, 4:15pm by JakeThere was some surprise at the lack of discussion of Palm’s recent financial results. To make up for that, I’m going to post my bold guesses at to what Palm will announce at their keynote address tomorrow. First, a word on financials: despite much gnashing of teeth, the news mar only marginally bad, with the real disappointment being the slow sell-through of the Pre at Sprint. Otherwise, they shipped more units than expected and reaffirmed their forecast for the current fiscal year. Margins and ASPs were lower than expected, but not terribly so. Best bet, it looks like Palm will likely attain 25% gross margins going forward instead of the earlier forecasted 30-35%.
Now, my forecast, from most to least likely. To be announced during or shortly after the keynote.
1. Palm announces that the Pre and Pixi will be available on Verizon by the end of the month.
2. New Pixi colors announced.
3. Pre spec-bumped, to 32GB.
4. Pixi spec-bumped, to 16GB.
5. Flash-lite beta started.
6. The automated App Catalog for self-publishers launched.
7. Graphics processor used more extensively to speed up stuff, improve battery life.
8. Pre spec-bumped to raise processor speed (currently underclocked).
9. Video recording enabled.
10. Announce a dozen new international carriers for Pixi/Pre.
Now, these are longer shots but plausible
11. Palm announces a new webOS device, the Palm Pysle, with a larger screen (400 x 600) and Pixi-like form factor, scaled up length x width (similar thickness).
12. Pre classic cut in price to $100 on Sprint, Pixi classic cut to $50.
13. Partnership with DoubleTwist/ Amazon
14. Native development program started for select developers.
15. More Synergy partners announced… not sure who’s left at this point.
And finally…
16. Palm announces the Foleo II. 10″ tablet with a slide-out portrait keyboard (think Sidekick sized). Jeff Hawkins returns to lead the company.
Any guesses of your own?
January 6th, 2010 at 4:45 pm
I don’t follow the Pre news as closely as some, but I understood that basically the first 4 have already been leaked, right? At least a Pink Pixi, and the “Pre Plus” and the “Pixi Plus,” which are likely just memory bumps. Also, there was some FCC indication of a wifi Pixi, if I remember correctly.
Would either of you Pre-carriers be tempted by a hardware update? I’m guessing no, since the guesses above seem pretty modest, and I’m guessing that you probably can’t get the subsidy price again yet.
And I’m really hoping for #16. I think it would be great if every consumer electronics manufacturer announced an “iSlate killer” before the device had even been confirmed by Apple!
January 6th, 2010 at 4:53 pm
I’d probably upgrade if #11 came out. I love the Pixi form form factor, but the screen’s too small. Scale it up, slap on an OLED screen install 32GB of storage, and that’s one killer device.
January 6th, 2010 at 7:19 pm
So the Pre Plus and Pixi Plus specs have been leaked, per Precentral: only 16 and 8 GB for Pre and Pixi, respectively. For the Pixi, I’d rather have WiFi than the extra 8GB, anyway.
For the conference, I think it would be foolhardy for Palm to announce any other new devices and risk killing Verizon and AT&T sales before they start. Instead, I expect Palm to focus on the platform and preview upcoming changes to WebOS, which would include a lot of what you predicted: GPU support, video recording, developer tools, push messaging service, flash lite 10.1, etc. Like Apple’s recent iPhone events, they’ll probably trot out some developers, like EA, Dataviz, Epocrates, to demo some titles in the works. Hopefully, they surprise us with Skype and Google, too. I really can’t imagine anything unexpected coming out of the event. And no, I wouldn’t upgrade for a Pre Plus (even though I’m using 6 GB of my storage, but that includes carrying around a few cartoons for Lucas).
January 6th, 2010 at 7:35 pm
I wonder if the next webOS phone will debut on AT&T? The CEO did mention 2 Palm phones, but pointedly specified neither the Pre nor Pixi.
Still don’t get why AT&T launch wouldn’t be in February/March time frame. The phones have to be ready-to-go on GSM. I wonder if the delay is due to a significant Verizon commitment?
And I should have noted WiFi in the Pixi prediction… that was a given.
January 6th, 2010 at 8:27 pm
Specs leaked at engadget…
“Nothing much to see here — just a storage bump for the Pre to 16GB, and WiFi enabled on the Pixi, unlike its Sprint counterpart.”
Not that exciting. Hope there’s more to the keynote than that…
January 6th, 2010 at 10:40 pm
Interestingly, from the leaked pdf, the Pre Plus also seems to lose the center button (much like the Pixi) and come with a touchstone back– could it actually also have a touchstone? That would be a cheap way for Palm to maintain a price difference between the Pre+ and Pixi+. Say what you will about the utility of it, I love the touchstone, and I think throwing it in with the Pre would give people a reason to pay, say, a $100 premium over Pixi+.
January 7th, 2010 at 2:24 pm
You can check off #6. I’d mark #14 as a yes, too. #10 looks like it will fall well short, with only France being announced so far.
January 7th, 2010 at 2:31 pm
Check off #9… video recording is here!
January 7th, 2010 at 2:37 pm
#5 looks like a done deal, Pre users can get Flash Beta soon. I’m doing pretty good so far on the guesses!
January 7th, 2010 at 2:43 pm
And mark #1-4 as (unsurprisingly) confirmed, although I missed some of the specs. Ooh, looks like mobile hotspot enables tethering! W00T! Hopefully that swings over to Sprint… but looks like no, for now. Probably be an extra $40/month anyways. Would be cool if it was $40/month for 5 phones.
January 7th, 2010 at 3:38 pm
Mobile hotspot was a neat announcement, probably the only real surprise. I’m impressed that the EA games are available immediately– looks like porting the games was pretty painless (EA said weeks).
Verizon getting “exclusives” on the Pluses either means AT&T is not coming for a while, or will they get different handsets?
January 7th, 2010 at 4:16 pm
Maybe AT&T will get the Pre++?
My guess is that the 3rd in the “growing family” of webOS phones will be launched on AT&T, best guess April. But even if not, I think 3 months is a pretty standard “exclusive” in the phone world. I think it just means that Palm won’t be shipping any new Pre to Sprint for a while.
No idea if predictions #7 & #8 might be part of unannounced upgrades. There were some Synergy announcements, didn’t quite understand any of them. And I expect a prices cut on Sprint, especially for the Pixi. Looks like some of the new stuff is Pre only. Definitely won’t be trading down to a Pixi now.
January 9th, 2010 at 8:42 am
From the stuff I’ve read, it sounds like the Plus runs much faster with more RAM, has a touchstone back (but you still have to buy a Touchstone), and has this mobile hotspot app that won’t work on Sprint (or the Pre) from what I’ve read.
It’s just a little strange to me that these are all VZ exclusives — as if Apple released the 3GS on T-Mobile while continuing to sell the 3G on AT&T and NOT offering the 3GS there.
Think Sprint will get the Pre Plus? Will you guys upgrade now that you know what you’ll get?